Ethanol's impact multifold
Posted: 05.07.2007 at 10:58 AM

Corn planting boom underway as farmers cash in, but consumers may ultimately pay

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(AP) -- BLOOMINGTON, Ill. (AP) - Farmers fortunes rise and fall every year with the weather.

But experts say timely rains are critical this year to supply enough corn to meet growing demand for ethanol.

They say a bumper crop could hold prices steady while yielding enough corn to meet the needs for ethanol, livestock farmers and other food production.

A drought, on the other hand, could squeeze the market and send corn prices spiraling.

Corn prices that hovered around $2 a bushel for a decade have nearly doubled in the last year due to ethanol demand.

Analysts say the combination of ethanol and weather uncertainties will make for a volatile corn market this summer.

Many farmers and analysts say corn prices likely won't dip below $3 per bushel this year due to ethanol demand.

But others say prices could sink back to $2 a bushel with a record crop and could top $5 a bushel if there's a drought.

Mike Olson is among farmers who think there's extra money to be made the next few years to supply surging demand for corn-based ethanol.

Olson plans to bump corn by 15 percent this year on his central Illinois farm that harvested a 50-50 split of corn and soybeans last fall.

Experts say farmers can pocket an extra $100 an acre or more from corn under today's high prices.

But some farmers are more cautious, saying they've seen prices soar then fall plenty of times over the last three decades.

Vance Bauer says he'll stick with his usual 50-50 mix of corn and soybeans this year on his farm near Gowrie, Iowa. Bauer says he's optimistic about ethanol but doesn't want to put all of his eggs in one basket.

The expected corn planting rush to feed growing ethanol demand will spread from the Corn Belt to the land of cotton.

About 90.5 million acres of corn are expected to be planted nationwide this year, the most since 95.5 million acres were planted in 1944.

The five top corn-producing states (Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota and Indiana) account for 5.1 million of the projected 12.2 million new acres of corn.

But the sharpest increases are expected where cotton has been king for generations.

Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi are expected to boost corn acreage by 133 percent to 195 percent. Combined, the three states are expected to add 1.2 million acres of corn while trimming cotton production by more than a million acres.

Billy Joe Ragland says high corn prices offer a chance to make a little money for a change on his long-time cotton farm in central Mississippi.

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Corn prices have been pumped to near records by more than a hundred ethanol plants that have sprouted as America seeks renewable alternatives to foreign oil.

Corn will squeeze out soybeans across the Midwest and even cotton in parts of the Deep South according to the U.S. agriculture department's planting forecast for this year's crop.

But some farmers and experts warn that there's no guarantee prices will hold.

They say prices have nowhere to go but down if the market is flooded with corn.

And not everyone has forgotten how a massive grain deal with the Soviet Union in the early 1970s and the 1996 drought in China shot corn prices to record highs -- prices that later wilted.

The ethanol boom that's driven up corn prices could ultimately hit U.S. consumers in the pocketbook.

About half of the nation's corn crop feeds livestock and poultry, so high prices could mean more expensive meat and eggs on grocery shelves.

Farm officials say the livestock and poultry industries will likely try different feeding options or selling animals at lower weights before passing along higher prices to consumers.

Even if that fails, experts say it likely would be two or three years before shoppers see significantly higher prices. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns has downplayed ethanol's impact on food costs, saying food prices typically rise 2 to 3 percent a year based on a dozen different factors.

Some experts maintain there will be enough corn for everyone if a forecast for the largest U.S. corn planting since 1944 bears out.

(Copyright ©2007 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)